We see Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory bringing market and policy uncertainty in the short run. Trump’s agenda lacks detail and departs from the Republican Party tradition on trade, security and entitlements. Tapping into a backlash against the Washington status quo, he has often appeared at war with his own party and has surrounded himself with less known advisors.
Trump has said he may withdraw from or renegotiate trade deals as well as label China a “currency manipulator.” This raises the specter of retaliatory protectionist moves by other nations. Any such tensions, coupled with general uncertainty over the Trump administration’s goals, would likely initially result in “risk-off” sentiment hitting stocks and corporate bonds – and a flight to perceived safety havens such as gold and the Japanese yen.
U.S. Treasuries may initially benefit, but long-term bonds could come under pressure if markets perceive Trump’s policies to widen the budget deficit. Emerging market (EM) assets could sell off in the short run due to their reliance on trade and investor sentiment, with Mexico looking vulnerable because of its dependence on exports to the U.S. We see many EMs supported by improving economies, easing monetary policies and a global focus on fiscal spending, but Trump’s victory poses a challenge.
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