Much like the BREXIT vote, which seemed doomed at the end by the assassination of a key “Remain” politician that was deemed to make many “Leave” voters think their movement was hopelessly stained, Americans surprised the consensus with an anti-establishment vote, in particular by disagreeing with Clinton’s policies and with the FBI’s leadership’s view that she was not guilty in her activities during recent years.
Moreover, in what could easily be termed a revolution, voters thought that the economic and social system trends of the last decade needed reversal. Whether President Trump can deliver new trends or not is open to question, but certainly attempts will be made and the rhetoric will change towards “silent majority” populism, anti-“globalism at all costs”, deregulation and less progressive social policies, not only within the US, but globally to a large extent, as well. Volatility in most affairs will be substantial, as it is with all major political changes, and civil unrest is likely to be large.
Even though the Senate will remain Republican, his ability to pass legislation will be somewhat limited, as he is not admired by many Republicans in Congress, but he can use “executive actions” (in areas that do not require legislation, but rather just a moderate re-interpretation of existing laws) and the regulatory process (including Department of Justice investigations) quite freely, so he can have an impact on the economy and business.
In particular, rules regarding international trade are likely to change, especially regarding currency manipulation. Federal Reserve policies, although independent from the government in many respects, will likely become less dovish and entail new leadership before very long.
Although many of his policies are pro-business, especially regarding taxes and less regulation, risk markets will not likely respond well to his election for a while, especially given a less pro-trade environment, civil unrest, and likely major confrontations with Iran, North Korea and China.
In most respects, despite all the volatility of life over the past decade, it has actually been a very stable period and we all likely face a more unsettled globe that is full of change, much like the 1960s or even more troubled periods. This does not mean there will not be a way for such to settle down into a new balance of power and social systems eventually, but it will likely require stamina and flexibility for quite some time.
